Scenario Planning: Embracing the Potential for Extreme Events in the Colorado River Basin.

Scenario planning (SP) has been increasingly utilized by water managers and planners in the 21st century as climate and other uncertainties have challenged traditional planning approaches. This paper discusses the potential for scenario planning processes in the Colorado River Basin in the southwestern United States to build collective understanding of compound and cascading risks, and to identify possible solutions at multiple scales. Under the Colorado River Conversations Project, we convened a series of conferences and scenario planning workshops over the past 3 years to explore the potential to enhance the use of social and physical sciences in river management, and to broaden the community of people and entities engaged in discussions about managing the Colorado River. Working with a group of thirty water managers and other interested parties representing all 7 basin states, several Tribes, NGO's and Mexico, we used a participatory, mixed-methods approach to scenario planning that identified multiple drivers of change and developed eight science-based storylines from the intersection of these drivers. The development of the storylines and the subsequent conversations with participants about impacts and solutions resulted in a framework for understanding low probability-high consequence climate and other risks across the Colorado River Basin. We highlight three lessons that speak to the value and role of SP for fostering collaboration and creativity. These lessons include: (1) the importance of process in SP in fostering deliberate community building across sectors and geographies; (2) identifying challenges with engaging with uncertainty, complexity, and risk; and (3) determining what these findings mean for future SP in the Colorado River Basin and beyond.

Effects of Temperature, Growth Media, and Photoperiod on Growth and Toxin Production of Azadinium spinosum.

Azaspiracids (AZAs) are microalgal toxins that can accumulate in shellfish and lead to human intoxications. To facilitate their study and subsequent biomonitoring, purification from microalgae rather than shellfish is preferable; however, challenges remain with respect to maximizing toxin yields. The impacts of temperature, growth media, and photoperiod on cell densities and toxin production in Azadinium spinosum were investigated. Final cell densities were similar at 10 and 18 °C, while toxin cell quotas were higher (~3.5-fold) at 10 °C. A comparison of culture media showed higher cell densities and AZA cell quotas (2.5-5-fold) in f10k compared to f/2 and L1 media. Photoperiod also showed differences, with lower cell densities in the 8:16 L:D treatment, while toxin cell quotas were similar for 12:12 and 8:16 L:D treatments but slightly lower for the 16:8 L:D treatment. AZA1, -2 and -33 were detected during the exponential phase, while some known and new AZAs were only detected once the stationary phase was reached. These compounds were additionally detected in field water samples during an AZA event.

Flow Restoration in the Columbia River Basin: An Evaluation of a Flow Restoration Accounting Framework.

Securing environmental flows in support of freshwater biodiversity is an evolving field of practice. An example of a large-scale program dedicated to restoring environmental flows is the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program in the Pacific Northwest region of North America, which has been restoring flows in dewatered tributary habitats for imperiled salmon species over the past decade. This paper discusses a four-tiered flow restoration accounting framework for tracking the implementation and impacts of water transactions as an effective tool for adaptive management. The flow restoration accounting framework provides compliance and flow accounting information to monitor transaction efficacy. We review the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework monitoring framework to demonstrate (a) the extent of water transactions that have been implemented over the past decade, (b) the volumes of restored flow in meeting flow targets for restoring habitat for anadromous fish species, and (c) an example of aquatic habitat enhancement that resulted from Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program investments. Project results show that from 2002 to 2015, the Columbia Basin Water Transactions Program has completed more than 450 water rights transactions, restoring approximately 1.59 million megaliters to date, with an additional 10.98 million megaliters of flow protected for use over the next 100 years. This has resulted in the watering of over 2414 stream kilometers within the Columbia Basin. We conclude with a discussion of the insights gained through the implementation of the flow restoration accounting framework. Understanding the approach and efficacy of a monitoring framework applied across a large river basin can be informative to emerging flow-restoration and adaptive management efforts in areas of conservation concern.

The incidence and clinical significance of lymph node micrometastases determined by immunohistochemical staining in stage I - lymph node negative endometrial cancer.

OBJECTIVE: Determine the incidence and clinical relevance of lymph node micrometastases found with immunohistochemical (IHC) staining in patients diagnosed with stage I lymph node-negative endometrial adenocarcinoma. METHODS: Eligible patients with endometrioid-type histology and negative lymph nodes by H&E were identified by a computerized database. After histologic confirmation, all paraffin-embedded pathologic specimens were freshly sliced and stained with IHC stains for pancytokeratin. Slides were interpreted by two pathologists and positive IHC staining for micrometastases was defined as positive staining of cells <2 mm in greatest dimension. Patient demographics, clinicopathologic factors, and follow-up data were abstracted. RESULTS: Fifty-one patients were included in our study. Most patients had stage IA (84%) tumors of grade 2/3 histology (51%), and 11 patients (22%) received adjuvant therapy. Mean number of lymph nodes was 12.2 per patient. Of 151 lymph node paraffin blocks evaluated for pancytokeratin, only two (1.3%) had IHC-positive micrometastases. The two lymph node-positive results occurred in separate patients, leading to 3.9% of all patients in our cohort. Both micrometastatic lymph node-positive patients had adjuvant radiation therapy for uterine high-risk factors and are currently without evidence of disease at 15 and 16 months, respectively. Three lymph node-negative patients (6.1%) have developed recurrences within a median follow-up of 15 months. CONCLUSION: The incidence of IHC stain-positive micrometastases in H&E-negative lymph nodes is low in surgically staged endometrial cancer and does not justify routine IHC staining. Additionally, as little evidence exists to support the clinical significance of IHC-stained micrometastases in endometrial cancer, further study is warranted.